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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-08-22T23:29:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-22T23:29Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26605/-1
CME Note: Ultra-faint CME seen primarily to the south and west, especially in SOHO LASCO running difference imagery after 2023-08-23T23:00Z. Likely associated with the M1.1-class flare from Active Region 3405 (N10W32) and sympathetic structure of U-shaped dimming seen south and east of the active region, possibly centered around S10W20. Analysis and modeling of this CME is very uncertain and speculative given current geometry of available observing spacecraft, data gaps, and faintness of the CME. No clear evidence of arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-26T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a4b1
Ejecta settings d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrzqs
cormode: single

Lead Time: 55.12 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-08-23T16:53Z

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